GBP/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 172.47; (P) 172.82; (R1) 173.19;
The GBP/JPY is possibly reversing ahead of 174.84 key resistance and starting another falling leg inside the sideway pattern from 174.84. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 170.95 support first. Break will affirm this case and target 169.53 support next. In case of another rally, we'd stay cautious on reversal from 174.84.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) might still extend to above 174.84. Nonetheless, upside momentum is rather unconvincing as seen in weekly MACD. Thus, even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 183.96 to limit upside. Meanwhile, sustained break of 163.87 support should confirm medium term topping at 174.84 and bring deeper correction to 147.61/156.77 support zone next.
EUR/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.13; (P) 138.30; (R1) 138.64;
Intraday bias in the EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 137.71. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 140.09 resistance holds. The cross is in the third leg of the pattern from 145.68. Break of 137.71 will target 136.22 support next. On the upside, break of 140.09 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 143.78 resistance.
In the bigger picture, loss of upside momentum was seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. However, the EUR/JPY is so far holding above 135.50 key support. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Break of 145.68 will extend the up trend from 94.11 towards 76.4% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 152.59 before topping. Meanwhile, break of 135.50 will confirm reversal and target 124.95 support.
