GBP/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 169.96; (P) 170.32; (R1) 170.87;
Intraday bias in the GBP/JPY remains neutral first. As long as 171.97 resistance holds, deeper decline is still expected. Such fall is possibly part of the consolidation from 174.84. Break of 169.50 will confirm this case and target 167.77 and below. Meanwhile above 171.97 resistance will invalidate this bearish case and turn focus back to 173.46 resistance again.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) might still extend to above 174.84. Nonetheless, upside momentum is rather unconvincing as seen in weekly MACD. Thus, even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 183.96 to limit upside. Meanwhile, sustained break of 163.87 support should confirm medium term topping at 174.84 and bring deeper correction to 147.61/156.77 support zone next.
EUR/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.23; (P) 138.55; (R1) 139.02;
Intraday bias in the EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. As long as 139.36 resistance holds, near term outlook stays mildly bearish. Current decline is a falling leg inside the consolidation pattern from 145.68. Below 137.97 will target 136.22 support. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 139.36 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound to 55 days EMA (now at 140.24).
In the bigger picture, loss of upside momentum was seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. However, EUR/JPY is so far holding above 135.50 key support. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Break of 145.68 will extend the up trend from 94.11 towards 76.4% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 152.59 before topping. Meanwhile, break of 135.50 will confirm reversal and target 124.95 support.
