GBP/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 172.67; (P) 172.97; (R1) 173.21;
The GBP/JPY turned sideway ahead of 173.46 resistance. But with 172.53 support intact, further rise is expected. Current rise from 169.53 could extend further to 174.84 key resistance. At this point, we'd remain cautious on strong resistance from there to bring reversal to extend the medium term sideway pattern. Below 172.53 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 170.95 support. However, decisive break of 174.84 will confirm resumption of larger up trend.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) might still extend to above 174.84. Nonetheless, upside momentum is rather unconvincing as seen in weekly MACD. Thus, even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 183.96 to limit upside. Meanwhile, sustained break of 163.87 support should confirm medium term topping at 174.84 and bring deeper correction to 147.61/156.77 support zone next.
EUR/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.85; (P) 138.06; (R1) 138.42;
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment for consolidations above 137.71 temporary low. Current development suggests that the cross is in the third leg of the pattern from 145.68. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 140.09 resistance holds. Below 137.71 will target 136.22 support next. On the upside, break of 140.09 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 143.78 resistance.
In the bigger picture, loss of upside momentum was seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. However, EUR/JPY is so far holding above 135.50 key support. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Break of 145.68 will extend the up trend from 94.11 towards 76.4% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 152.59 before topping. Meanwhile, break of 135.50 will confirm reversal and target 124.95 support.
