GBP/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 171.11; (P) 171.71; (R1) 172.09;
The GBP/JPY's fall from 172.53 extends lower today. But it's staying in recent converging range. Outlook is unchanged. The sideway consolidation pattern from 174.84 is still in progress and could extend further. In case of further rise, we'd expect strong resistance below 174.84 to limit upside and bring another fall. Break of 169.53 will target 163.87 support.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) might still extend to above 174.84. Nonetheless, upside momentum is rather unconvincing as seen in weekly MACD. Thus, even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 183.96 to limit upside. Meanwhile, sustained break of 163.87 support should confirm medium term topping at 174.84 and bring deeper correction to 147.61/156.77 support zone next.
EUR/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.25; (P) 138.83; (R1) 139.21;
The rejection from 55 days EMA and subsequent sharp decline suggests that recovery from 137.97 has completed at 140.09 already. More importantly, the larger fall from 143.78 is likely still in progress. Intraday bias is neutral first with focus on 137.97. Break will target 136.22 support and below. Meanwhile, above 140.09 will extend the rebound from 137.97. But after all, the cross is staying inside the sideway pattern from 145.68. In case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen from 143.78 and bring another fall to extend the pattern.
In the bigger picture, loss of upside momentum was seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. However, EUR/JPY is so far holding above 135.50 key support. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Break of 145.68 will extend the up trend from 94.11 towards 76.4% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 152.59 before topping. Meanwhile, break of 135.50 will confirm reversal and target 124.95 support.
