GBP/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 173.17; (P) 173.48; (R1) 173.76;
The GBP/JPY recovers today but with 174.41 resistance intact, anther fall is in favor. Break of 172.46 will confirm near term reversal and target 169.53 key support level next. However, above 174.41 will mix up the near term outlook and turn bias back to the upside for 175.36 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) might continue higher. But again, as medium term momentum is unconvincing as seen in weekly MACD. Thus, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 183.96 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained break of 169.53 support should confirm medium term topping and turn outlook bearish.
EUR/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.66; (P) 137.85; (R1) 138.03;
The EUR/JPY recovers strongly today but with 138.75 minor resistance intact, further decline is still expected. As noted before, the cross in in the third leg of the pattern from 145.68. Deeper decline should be seen to 136.22 support next. On the upside, above 138.75 will turn focus back to 139.27 resistance and break will indicates near term reversal.
In the bigger picture, loss of upside momentum was seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. However, the EUR/JPY is so far holding above 135.50 key support. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Break of 145.68 will extend the up trend from 94.11 towards 76.4% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 152.59 before topping. Meanwhile, break of 135.50 will confirm reversal and target 124.95 support.
