Bank of Canada Governor Carney made a speech today in Montreal titled Renewing Canada’s Monetary Policy Framework. Most of the speech dealt with information presented earlier this month in a background paper published when thee Bank announced that with the Government of Canada it had agreed to renew the inflation target for the next five years.
Here are some of the key points from Governor Carney’s speech to the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal:
The global economic outlook has weakened considerably and financial market volatility has increased, owing in particular to the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis. European authorities have announced important plans to provide time to refound their monetary union, but acute strains persist. At this point, the crisis appears barely contained.
In Canada, total CPI inflation is near the top of the target range, and preliminary evidence suggests that economic growth in the second half of the year will be slightly stronger than the Bank had projected in the October Monetary Policy Report.
Domestic demand is expected to remain the primary driver of growth in Canada, but these shocks from abroad imply more subdued growth in household expenditures and less vigorous growth in business investment. As a result, the Bank continues to expect excess supply in the economy to persist well into 2013. This, along with the reversal of earlier sharp increases in food and energy prices, is expected to push total CPI inflation toward the bottom of the target range by the middle of next year.
In this environment, the Bank judges it appropriate to maintain the considerable monetary stimulus in place. This stimulus has been further enhanced by the sharp fall in global risk-free yields, which is providing further support to the Canadian economy
through our well-functioning financial system.
Mr. Carney did go off script to say that he was confident that he could ensure a well functioning Canadian financial system even if global conditions were to deteriorate. For Canadian firms that are contemplating what to do, he said that the current environment of stimulative financial conditions could provide an opportunity to the extent that business plans are not overly aggressive with respect to the U.S. growth outlook (he sees the U.S. growing at closer to 2% going forward as opposed to 4% in the past).
With respect to the interest rate outlook, Mr. Carney appeared comfortable with the current stance of monetary policy in Canada. With respect to growing indebtedness of households and house price inflation, he implied that monetary policy was a blunt instrument that makes an inappropriate tool to deal with imbalances that matter only to a specific sector. Under these circumstances, he much prefers microprudential regulations and supervision. In his view, the Government of Canada has already made three timely and prudent adjustments to the terms of mortgage finance. Additional measures, such as the counter-cyclical capital buffer and through the cycle margining, are under development. In light of previous comments made by Mr. Carney, the main risk to the Canadian economy is a global liquidity crunch, a situation that can be better addressed by supplying ample liquidity to the financial system rather than cutting interest rates.
Here are some of the key points from Governor Carney’s speech to the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal:
The global economic outlook has weakened considerably and financial market volatility has increased, owing in particular to the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis. European authorities have announced important plans to provide time to refound their monetary union, but acute strains persist. At this point, the crisis appears barely contained.
In Canada, total CPI inflation is near the top of the target range, and preliminary evidence suggests that economic growth in the second half of the year will be slightly stronger than the Bank had projected in the October Monetary Policy Report.
Domestic demand is expected to remain the primary driver of growth in Canada, but these shocks from abroad imply more subdued growth in household expenditures and less vigorous growth in business investment. As a result, the Bank continues to expect excess supply in the economy to persist well into 2013. This, along with the reversal of earlier sharp increases in food and energy prices, is expected to push total CPI inflation toward the bottom of the target range by the middle of next year.
In this environment, the Bank judges it appropriate to maintain the considerable monetary stimulus in place. This stimulus has been further enhanced by the sharp fall in global risk-free yields, which is providing further support to the Canadian economy
through our well-functioning financial system.
Mr. Carney did go off script to say that he was confident that he could ensure a well functioning Canadian financial system even if global conditions were to deteriorate. For Canadian firms that are contemplating what to do, he said that the current environment of stimulative financial conditions could provide an opportunity to the extent that business plans are not overly aggressive with respect to the U.S. growth outlook (he sees the U.S. growing at closer to 2% going forward as opposed to 4% in the past).
With respect to the interest rate outlook, Mr. Carney appeared comfortable with the current stance of monetary policy in Canada. With respect to growing indebtedness of households and house price inflation, he implied that monetary policy was a blunt instrument that makes an inappropriate tool to deal with imbalances that matter only to a specific sector. Under these circumstances, he much prefers microprudential regulations and supervision. In his view, the Government of Canada has already made three timely and prudent adjustments to the terms of mortgage finance. Additional measures, such as the counter-cyclical capital buffer and through the cycle margining, are under development. In light of previous comments made by Mr. Carney, the main risk to the Canadian economy is a global liquidity crunch, a situation that can be better addressed by supplying ample liquidity to the financial system rather than cutting interest rates.