The Swedish agenda is completely empty in terms of statistics next week. The market is instead likely to focus on the possibility of Riksbank actions, primarily in the form of a rate cut and/or additional QE.
Swedish December inflation turned out for the worse for the Riksbank on all accounts. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding Energy all were 0.2 percentage points below the Riksbanks forecasts - again. This is why we change our call on Riksbank from an April 10bp rate cut (to -0.45%) to a corresponding February rate cut. This will have to be combined with a new lower/flatter repo rate path if it is going to succeed. As we indicated previously, Riksbank action could very well come earlier than this.
The Swedish Debt Office will start 2016 by selling SEK4bn in the new 10Y benchmark SGB 1% 11/26. We look for strong demand.
There is nothing special on the Norwegian agenda this week so the market will continue to discuss how much easing the Norges Bank will deliver in light of the recent drop in oil prices.
In Denmark, the statistical office will release employment figures for November on Friday. Thursday brings consumer confidence data for January. Despite falling sharply since March last year, the indicator remains high but the turmoil in financial markets at the start of 2016 may have affected consumers' expectations. Rounding off the week on Friday will be retail sales data for December.
The Danish debt office will on Wednesday tap in the 0.1% 2023 linker and the DGB 1.75% '25 bond. We have seen underperformance for DGBs recently. However, we expect to see decent demand for the long end of the curve given the steep slope between, for example, DGB 1.5% '23 and DGB 1.75% '25.
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