Key Takeaways
When we consider price action, daily closes are more important than intraday swings, weekly closes are more crucial than daily, monthly more important than weekly, and finally, quarterly more critical than monthly. We are seeing prices closing in on a full house of all-time highs.
Gold's all-time highest quarterly close was in Q4 2020 at just under the $1900/oz level (1897). With under a week to go until the 1st quarter of 2022 closes, gold is significantly above this level, currently dancing above the structurally significant $1950/oz level.
Gold's highest monthly close is $1974/oz which was achieved in July 2020, a spitting distance from where we are now. Gold's highest weekly close was in August 2020 at $2035/oz. We have already taken this level out within the current calendar month, albeit with an intraday spike high and not a weekly close.
Gold's all-time high daily close was on Aug. 7, 2020, at $2064/oz. Two weeks ago, it came within $13/oz of this daily close.
All this is hugely bullish for gold. Following the Fed's announcement of interest rate hikes, gold hit an intraday low of $1894/oz, and the buyers came in. It hasn't looked back since. Any dips have been bought, and this is a sign the bull market has resumed the next leg up.
Absent some catastrophic change of macro events. The $1900 level looks solid and has a base that can be built on. The war in Ukraine has only gone to tighten commodity supplies further. Once gold breaks all-time highs and we close above the major levels listed above, we should be projecting higher targets.
The caveat to this, of course, is that next week is contract expiry and end of the month and quarter, which is always volatile with profit-taking. Next week, we may see a dip, but this may well be the last buying opportunity. Perhaps even of this decade as inflationary pressures continue across the globe.
The Fed is always behind the curve and has been far too late with interest rates. Watch for the main indexes and how they react. Once the money begins to rotate, it will fly even more into commodities. And don't forget gold's little sister silver.