The continuation of second-rate US economic data has further attracted buyers towards the yellow metal. Right now, Gold is situated at a four-month high, with confidence in the USD deteriorating rapidly. However, I believe that the safe haven metal’s recent breakout is set to continue into next week, with the weather continuing to plague economic performances.
The USD has taken a tumble in recent weeks, with a bullish January now nothing but a distant memory. In the past two weeks, we have observed the second consecutive weak Non-Farm Payroll, alongside the slowest growth in eight months for manufacturing. Further losses occurred yesterday, when Advance Retail Sales contracted 0.4% (despite January sales in the US) and Initial Jobless Claims crept above the 330,000 benchmark.
Looking ahead to next week, future USD losses are possible. Firstly, the US markets are closed on Monday, 17th February for President’s Day and generally, when the US markets are closed, the USD weakens slightly. Likewise, next week is heavy on housing statistics from the United States. Well, if the weather can have negative correlations on business hiring and retail sales, it can also be detrimental to their housing sector. For example, on 19th February, both Housing Starts and Building Permits are released. If the adverse weather is damagingothersectorsof the US economy, then I fail to envisage how housing projects were able to commence in January.
Regarding my technical observations for Gold, the commodity has fully broken out of its previous bearish trend line, which had been in play for the best part of four months. The recent disappointing US economic data encouraged Gold to push above the 1265.55 and 1281.00 resistance levels. Thecontraction in Advance Retail Sales and unanticipated surge in Initial Jobless Claims triggered Gold to force through the 1305.00 resistance level, with Gold now close to breaching the 1319.00.
If the atrocious US weather conditions have a negative correlation on next week’s housing data, then 1337.20 and 1350.00 can be targeted. Additionally, If the Federal Reserve indicates that recent results makes the prospect of a March QE taper unlikely, then 1370.00 could also be in reach. When looking at the RSI, it suggests that despite recent aggressive backing, Gold can still continue to progress higher, with no signs currently being overextended.
Overall, weather conditions are having an unprecedented effect on the US economy. After two weeks of alarming economic performances, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are already reducing their estimates for first quarter US GDP.
Perhaps 2014 is not going to be the downfall of Gold after all.