Since I wrote my last analysis, gold futures followed the dovish tone by the Federal Reserve but left the investors with hopes for a rate cut in March 2024.
Despite Fed Chair Powell's comments that while it was too soon to declare victory over inflation, he still projected a lower inflation outlook for 2023.
This dovish statement by the Fed sparked increased speculation over when the bank will begin cutting rates. Seventeen out of 19 Fed officials project that the policy rate will be lower by the end of 2024 than it is now - with the median projection showing a fall to 4.6% from the current 5.25%-5.50% range.
No doubt, the Fed’s attempt to keep the cost of borrowing lower resulted in a sliding move by the US dollar index, touched 4-month low levels on Wednesday, which consequently resulted in a breakout by the gold futures to hit the long-term resistance at $2053.
In a daily chart, the formation of an ‘Exhaustive Hammer, followed by a bearish ‘Dozy’ while the 9 DMA has crossed the 18 DMA with a downward tilt in today’s trading session confirms a sell-off to continue amid wobbly moves by the gold futures during till the end of 2023. Undoubtedly, this weekly closing will play a significant role in the further directional move of the gold futures.
On the bearish side, a sustainable move by the gold futures below the significant support at 200 DMA at $1967 in a daily chart will keep the selling spree up to the next support at $1919. On the other hand, only a sustainable move by the gold futures above the immediate resistance at $2053 is likely to push the gold futures up to the next resistance at $2130.
Finally, I conclude that the gold futures could witness extreme volatility during the upcoming week as the overall trend looks bearish, which is yet to get confirmation on Dec.15, 2023, as the current breakout still looks temporary due to the weak US dollar.
Disclaimer: The author of this analysis may or may not have any position in the Gold futures. Readers can take any long or short trading position at their own risk.