The minimum target for wave C of a triangle has been reached last week. Nevertheless, Gold is likely to progress further to the downside within at least another up-down sequence. Our preferred path is depicted in red. The red scenario may even extend further to the downside, which we will analyze as/if wave structure unfolds to the downside.
The alternative scenario shows a significant bottom in gold on last week slow. This is a possibility and it fits into the Elliott wave framework. However, it is way too early to call for a reversal here. There is not much evidence for that besides a potentially complete Elliott wave picture. Therefore, we see about 60 / 40 odds in favor of the red scenario. Getting above the 1268 level challenges our red scenario and suggests that we saw a significant low last week.
All in all, we are no longer bearish on Gold but turn carefully neutral. We still expect to see a significant low within the next few weeks.
