Gold bounced back yesterday after touching trendline support at $1260, jumping $25 from the lows to close around $1285. This morning, gold is trading steady around $1285, holding onto yesterday's gains and looking to move back towards $1300.
The dollar remains above 81, which is now becoming established as support - this will limit gold's gains and encourage a continuation of the recent "sell the rallies" mentality.
Equities continue to forge new all time highs and oil is still falling - this is not an environment that is conducive to higher gold prices. We suspect the 200 hour MA at $1297 will cap the gold price on this rally, it would take a move above $1360 to see us change to a medium term bullish stance, coupled with a significant correction in equities and renewed dollar weakness.
A break below $1260 will be very bearish for gold, as it will suggest that the triangle consolidation that has been developing since the $1180 low is breaking to the downside.
Support can be found at $1277-$1280, $1260, $1250, $1207 and $1180. A break of $1$180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to $1000-$1050 as a minimum.
Resistance can be found at $1291, $1300, $1310, $1320-$1322, $1328-$1330, $1338-$1342, $1352-$1355 and $1360. A break above $1360 would be the first suggestion of a new bull trend, though it would take a break of $1434 to confirm this was the case, with a target of $1525 as a minimum.