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Gold: Short-Term Weakness Likely

Published 05/02/2017, 09:06 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
XAU/USD
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XAG/USD
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GC
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SI
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Daily Gold-to-Silver Ratio

Daily chart of Gold-to-Silver ratio above suggests that the ratio is in a correcting cycle from 2/29/2016 peak (83.68) before the decline resumes later, provided that pivot at 83.68 high stays intact. Short term, cycle from 7/4/2016 low (64.37) is showing a 5 swing incomplete sequence, favoring further upside in the short term. Expect the ratio to extend higher towards 76.55 – 78.68 area to end the rally from 7/4/2016 low, then it should at least pullback in 3 waves if not continue the next leg lower.

As the ratio is inversely correlated with the underlying physical metals, this suggests that a higher ratio implies a lower XAU/USD and XAG/USD. Thus, we could expect short-term weakness in both metals to persist until the Ratio reaches the target of 76.55 – 78.68, then when the Ratio turns lower, both metals can get support and start rallying also.

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