Gold Rises on Mixed US Economic Data
Gold (XAU/USD) rose by 0.26% on Tuesday after US macroeconomic reports revealed mixed data.
The Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index reached a six-month high in August, climbing to 103.3 from a revised 101.9 in July. Meanwhile, the US Housing Price Index decreased by 0.1% month-over-month in June, lower than the anticipated 0.2% increase, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the rate futures markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut in September, with a 34.5% chance of a deeper cut. Traders are also expecting a total of 100 bps of reductions in the US interest rate this year.
The escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's dovish monetary policy outlook support the gold price.
"The prospect of falling interest rates is also attracting investors. According to Bloomberg, Gold ETF holdings rose by 15 tonnes last week to the highest level in six months. Speculative interest is particularly strong.
The net long position of speculative investors rose to around 193,000 contracts in the week to 20 August, at the same time as gold hit an all-time high, its highest level in almost four and a half years", observed Carsten Fritsch, commodity strategist at Commerzbank.
XAU/USD fell during the Asian and early European trading sessions amid the modest rebound of the US Dollar Index (DXY). Today, investors will look to a speech by Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, due at 10:00 p.m. UTC, for further insights into the direction of US interest rates.
"Spot gold looks neutral in a range of $2,503 to $2,524 per ounce, and an escape could suggest a direction", said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
Euro Moves Sideways Due to a Lack of Significant Data
EUR/USD continued to move sideways yesterday within the range of 1.11500–1.12000. The US Consumer Confidence report was better than expected but failed to cause significant movement in the pair. Overall, the euro rose towards 1.12000 by the end of the trading session, gaining 0.21%.
Investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to start reducing interest rates next month, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's recent comments indicated a more dovish stance. The discussion is now whether the decrease will be a 25-basis-point (bps) or a more substantial 50-bps reduction.
According to data from the CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch Tool, there is currently a 36% probability of a more significant cut, an increase from 29% the previous week. According to the US report, the Consumer Confidence Index rose towards 103.3 in August from a previously revised 101.9 in July.
However, the market showed little reaction to this data. Investors are currently waiting for a preliminary estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2, Unemployment Claims, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index reports later this week. The data may give more insights on the possible pace of easing in the US interest rate.
"After a significant rally since early August, it appears that the euro/dollar pair may be due for some consolidation", said Chris Turner, head of Global Markets at ING.
EUR/USD started Wednesday morning with bearish pressure on the pair. The pair dropped below the 1.11500 support level. Today, there are no scheduled events that may affect EUR/USD.
Monetary Policy Divergence Between Fed and BOC Supports CAD
The Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) gained 0.35% against the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday as the greenback continued to weaken despite a better-than-expected Consumer Confidence report.
USD/CAD has already declined by more than 3% in August as the prospect of upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to pressure the US dollar.
Investors have priced in a 100% probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the 18 September meeting, with the debate now focused on the possibility of a 50-bps cut.
Additionally, the recent Canadian macroeconomic data has been supportive of the currency. Last week, the Canadian Retail Sales report was better than expected, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased to 2.9%, up from 2.8%.
Still, CAD is facing devaluation risks as the price of oil, one of Canada's major export items, dropped by 2.5% in August due to concerns that weaker economic growth in the US and China will dampen energy demand. However, the market expects the Bank of Canada (BOC) to be less aggressive in its monetary policy easing than the Fed.
The latest interest rates swap market data implies more than 100 bps worth of rate cuts by the Fed and just over 70 bps by the BoC by the end of the year. The divergence in monetary policy expectations may continue to push USD/CAD lower in the long term.
USD/CAD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the formal macroeconomic calendar doesn't feature any major events, so volatility may remain low.
Furthermore, traders will likely reposition and generally refrain from placing big orders ahead of the key economic reports on Friday.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index and Canadian Gross Domestic Product data will be released simultaneously at 1:30 p.m. UTC on 30 August, potentially triggering increased volatility.