Last week was a week of two halves as far as precious metals were concerned. The first half a dire one for bulls, but the second seeing new buyers tempted into the market, with Thursday’s impressive gold rally setting the stage for a recovery back above $1,600. Silver is still trading around $28.50, with $30 a key short-term target for silver bulls.
Growth assets such as stocks and industrial commodities have risen slightly in trading this morning, with Brent crude finding its way back above $107.50 a barrel, while copper has rallied (0.76%) since midnight GMT. In contrast to usual risk-on trading patterns, however, the euro has fallen slightly against the dollar after rallying hard on Friday, and is now back around $1.278 after trading slightly above $1.28 at the start of the day.
Despite all the doom & gloom surrounding the old continent last week, the Dollar Index still could not break above 82.00 – a level that as we pointed out in one of last week’s commentaries, has served as a barrier for dollar bulls since late 2010. JSMineSet reports that the latest Euro FX futures COT shows large speculators adding $9.4 billion of new long euro positions during the first half of this month. Do the big banks and hedge funds know something that the media – still hyperventilating about the prospect of eurozone collapse – doesn’t?
The week’s big economic events include new inflation numbers for the UK and an interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan tomorrow; new and existing US home sales data tomorrow and Wednesday; and a whole slew of data on Thursday – including German GDP, French and German manufacturing numbers, UK GDP, and durable goods and jobless claims in the US. To top it off, Mario Draghi is due to speak that evening, with expectations growing that the European Central Bank will be cutting interest rates soon.
The US data will be of particular interest to gold and silver traders. Better-than-expected numbers will push share prices higher and (probably) gold and silver lower. But worse-than-expected data – the recent trend – will push equities lower and encourage gold buying, as QE3 expectations grow.
Growth assets such as stocks and industrial commodities have risen slightly in trading this morning, with Brent crude finding its way back above $107.50 a barrel, while copper has rallied (0.76%) since midnight GMT. In contrast to usual risk-on trading patterns, however, the euro has fallen slightly against the dollar after rallying hard on Friday, and is now back around $1.278 after trading slightly above $1.28 at the start of the day.
Despite all the doom & gloom surrounding the old continent last week, the Dollar Index still could not break above 82.00 – a level that as we pointed out in one of last week’s commentaries, has served as a barrier for dollar bulls since late 2010. JSMineSet reports that the latest Euro FX futures COT shows large speculators adding $9.4 billion of new long euro positions during the first half of this month. Do the big banks and hedge funds know something that the media – still hyperventilating about the prospect of eurozone collapse – doesn’t?
The week’s big economic events include new inflation numbers for the UK and an interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan tomorrow; new and existing US home sales data tomorrow and Wednesday; and a whole slew of data on Thursday – including German GDP, French and German manufacturing numbers, UK GDP, and durable goods and jobless claims in the US. To top it off, Mario Draghi is due to speak that evening, with expectations growing that the European Central Bank will be cutting interest rates soon.
The US data will be of particular interest to gold and silver traders. Better-than-expected numbers will push share prices higher and (probably) gold and silver lower. But worse-than-expected data – the recent trend – will push equities lower and encourage gold buying, as QE3 expectations grow.