Strong Safe-Haven Demand Pushes Gold Higher
The gold (XAU/USD) price rose 0.91% on Friday, hitting a new all-time high. Gold increased as safe-haven demand remained strong amid growing trade war concerns stemming from US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index were higher than expected, but it didn’t significantly change investors’ interest rate expectations. On the contrary, a lower-than-anticipated rise in consumer spending and elevated prices boost the fears of stagflation, additionally supporting bullion. According to Reuters, Donald Trump’s protectionist trade agenda, with a rush of tariff action announcements, will boost the prices of imported goods and drive inflation higher. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged last week that inflation had started to rise ’partly in response to tariffs’.
Trump should make another trade policy announcement on 2 April. This may destabilise the global trade even further. Thus, investors flock to gold, a hedge against economic and political instability.
"t continues to be the safe-haven demand on ramped-up concerns about tariffs, trade and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty as well, that is supporting gold", said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.
XAU/USD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Earlier on Sunday, Trump threatened Iran with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran didn’t come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program. Today, the formal macroeconomic calendar is light. However, traders should continue to monitor developments on global trade tariffs and potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations.
Euro Rose as the US Dollar Weakened
The euro (EUR/USD) gained 0.24% against the US dollar (USD) on Friday as the greenback weakened due to concerns about slowing US economy.
Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index was higher than expected. This and a smaller-than-expected increase in consumer spending exacerbated investors’ worries about the US economy’s health. The worst-case scenario will be stagflation, where the US enters a period of sluggish growth and high inflation amid escalating trade tensions. In these circumstances, it will be very difficult for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to balance full employment and low prices properly. In addition, the lack of clarity over what tariffs Donald Trump’s administration will implement has further added to investor caution. As a result, the US dollar, US stock indices, and Treasury yields have been weakening.
"The one word that I keep hearing over and over from clients, and on earnings calls and things, is uncertainty. And you hear this from the central bankers as well", said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.
Meanwhile, technical factors support the euro after rebounding from its 1.07270 200-day moving average and a key Fibonacci retracement level. Overall, European economic data painted a concerning picture, with March inflation figures in France and Spain significantly falling short of projections. Consumer expectations for price increases remained low, increasing speculation about further European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts. Moreover, French consumer spending declined, Germany’s unemployment rate climbed more than anticipated, and Italian business and consumer confidence plummeted in March. All these further added to the negative sentiment.
EUR/USD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on the German inflation figures, which should be released before 12:00 p.m. UTC. In addition, traders should monitor developments concerning global trade tariffs and Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.08560 and support at 1.08000.
AUD Traders Await Interest Rate Decision
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) lost 0.25% against the US dollar (USD) on Friday. This is because growing fears over global recession triggered by a trade war weighed on risk-sensitive currencies.
Investors’ risk sentiment has deteriorated ahead of an announcement of US trade tariffs, which might destabilise the world trade even further. Australia has an export-driven economy, and currency is highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. Thus, an increase in global economic uncertainty leads to decreased demand for Australian commodities and a depreciation of the Australian dollar.
In addition, AUD traders have refrained from opening large positions ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting, which should provide clues on the direction of interest rates.
"AUD/USD can test 0.62000 this week if financial markets materially downgrade the global economic outlook in response to a new US tariff regime and the RBA strikes a dovish tone", said Kristina Clifton, an economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Interest rate swaps market data imply just an 18% probability of a rate cut on Tuesday, while there is a 70% probability of a decrease at May’s meeting. For all of 2025, the markets expect three rate cuts, although the RBA has indicated it may not be cutting that much.
AUD/USD fell during the Asian and early European trading session. Today, the economic calendar is uneventful. However, traders should monitor developments around global trade tariffs. The main event for the pair is tomorrow at 3:30 a.m. UTC when the RBA makes its monetary policy announcement. The market expects the central bank to leave its base rate unchanged at 4.1%. However, the market usually moves not due to the decision but because of the new details revealed in the post-meeting statement and at the press conference. If the RBA downgrades its economic forecast and Michele Bullock, RBA Governor, hints that more rate cuts are coming, AUD/USD will fall. If the statement includes better economic assessments, while Michele Bullock makes hawkish statements or sounds less dovish, AUD/USD may rise significantly.