Gold Is on the Way to an All-Time High
The market's focus on the broader implications of President Donald Trump's trade policies kept gold (XAU/USD) prices hovering near a three-month high yesterday.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum, U.S. President Donald Trump called for lower interest rates while emphasizing his commitment to reversing inflation. However, according to Reuters, traders continue to see a 99.5% chance of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping rates unchanged at its 28–29 January meeting. Moreover, interest rate swaps market data currently implies only a 45% probability that the U.S. base rate will be 25 basis points (bps) lower by mid-2025.
Because the prices for non-yielding metals tend to rise in a low interest rate environment, the fact that the gold price remains near an all-time high suggests that investors are more concerned about future trade policies. Thus, market participants have flocked to safe-haven assets such as gold over the past several weeks to hedge against volatility.
"There's just so much uncertainty now, and I can imagine gold would probably pause for a little while with several other markets to just kind of get some definition out of what is actually going to be implemented", said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.
XAU/USD rose sharply during the Asian session and continued to move higher during the early European trading session. Analysts attribute the rally to Trump's speech at Davos. 'With oil prices going down, I'll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world', Trump told the World Economic Forum on Thursday in Davos.
"There is a possibility of gold hitting an all-time high ... and the outlook remains positive", said Jigar Trivedi, senior analyst at Reliance Securities.
Later today, S&P Global will release its monthly Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for several industrialized economies, which can increase market volatility. The most important report is the U.S. PMI data, due at 2:45 p.m. UTC. Lower-than-expected figures may push the gold price higher, while higher-than-expected results may temporarily pause the rally.
"Spot gold may revisit its 30 October high of $2,790 per ounce, as it has cleared resistance at $2,747, the last barrier towards $2,790", said Jigar Trivedi, senior analyst at Reliance Securities.
Euro Needs More Positive Data to Recover
The euro (EUR/USD) was relatively unchanged against the US dollar (USD) yesterday but started to rise during the Asian session on Friday, following U.S. President Donald Trump's call for lower interest rates.
EUR/USD has risen above the 50-day moving average as traders digested Trump's comments on U.S. interest rates. Fundamentally, however, the latest market data still indicates a massive divergence in monetary policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), favouring the greenback. Interest rates swap market data imply that the U.S. base rate will be cut by just 25 basis points (bps) by mid-2025, while the ECB is expected to cut its base rate by 50 bps over the same period.
Besides, the eurozone economy is yet to demonstrate a sustained and robust recovery. While yesterday’s eurozone Consumer Sentiment data improved slightly, it remained below its long-term average, suggesting a lack of economic optimism among regular citizens. On balance, it's likely premature to anticipate a prolonged upward trend in the EUR/USD.
EUR/USD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market focuses on S&P Global's Flash Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) data for January. Eurozone and U.S. reports are due at 9:00 a.m. UTC and 2:45 p.m. UTC, respectively. If eurozone PMI figures are weaker than expected and lower than the U.S. numbers, the bearish trend in EUR/USD may resume. Bears may begin to target 1.03550. Conversely, better-than-expected results will likely pull the pair above 1.04740.
Bitcoin Remains in a Bullish Trend
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) was down by 0.9% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Thursday as traders remain unsure about its short-term direction following last year's massive rally.
BTC/USD has been moving sideways for the past month despite bullish developments on the regulatory front. U.S. President Donald Trump's executive order on Thursday significantly reshaped U.S. crypto policy. It established a cryptocurrency working group to propose new regulations, protected banking services for crypto companies, and banned a competing U.S. central bank digital currency. In a win for the industry, the order also rescinded costly accounting guidance that had hindered digital asset adoption. Still, some investors remained unimpressed. 'I am not an advocate, nor a critic ... it is not what it was supposed to be, which was an alternative to banking. To me, what crypto really correlates to is Nasdaq—it's a risk-on appetite indicator to me', said Anne Walsh, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners.
Meanwhile, Nicolai Tangen, chief executive of Norway's $1.8 trillion sovereign wealth fund, said he didn't see crypto becoming a part of Norges Bank Investment Management's portfolio. However, the overall regulatory environment is slowly improving, and the technical picture for BTC/USD remains bullish even as the pair has probably entered a mid-term sideways trend.
BTC/USD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market awaits January's S&P Global’s Flash Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) data. These reports may influence interest rate expectations and investors' sentiment, so traders can expect sharp price movements in the market. If the U.S. PMI at 2:45 p.m. UTC comes lower than expected, BTC/USD will likely receive a minor bullish boost. Conversely, higher-than-expected results may temporarily pause the rally and push the pair down towards 102,600.