Gold Price Hovers Near 1,990 Ahead of the NFP Report
Gold (XAU) gained 0.17% on Thursday due to the softening dollar and declining Treasury yields as anticipations increase that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) may have concluded its interest rate increases.
On Wednesday, the Fed kept its interest rate unchanged but suggested an additional hike could be possible due to enduring high inflation and a robust jobs market. However, the consensus in financial markets leans towards no further rate hikes, anticipating the delayed effects of prior increases to manifest in the economy. Concurrently, gold has pulled back from its recent highs, poised for a weekly decline of approximately 1%, as tensions in the Middle East have also begun to diminish.
"Gold is supported as there are signs of cracks in the U.S. labour market, which probably signals the Fed is backing off completely from rate hikes," said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.
Indeed, yesterday's jobless claims data showed a weekly increase of 217K, which was higher than the market expected and was also the most considerable rise in almost two months.
XAU/USD was essentially flat during the Asian and early European sessions. Market participants are now focusing on the upcoming monthly U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due at 12:30 p.m. UTC to assess the labour market's vigour and inform their expectations for future interest rate movements. Lower-than-expected figures will impact XAU/USD positively, potentially pushing the price to $2,000. However, XAU/USD may correct downwards if the figures come out higher than expected.
Euro Continues to Rise Amid Confusing Messages From the Officials
Euro (EUR) gained as much as 0.49% on Thursday as the US Dollar Index (DXY) dipped due to lower U.S. labour costs and a slight rise in jobless claims.
The comments from the ECB officials have been somewhat mixed. Klaas Knot acknowledged that interest rates had reached a suitable 'cruising altitude', while ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane noted a strong possibility for a soft landing. However, Isabel Schnabel recently stated that while the ECB is on track to push inflation back to its 2% target by 2025, it still cannot close the door on further interest rate hikes. This comes as the Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI indicated a recession-level figure of 43.1, and German unemployment increased beyond expectations.
EUR/USD was rising slightly during the Asian and early European sessions. Today, the main focus will be on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. If it reveals that the jobs market in the U.S. is slowing down and NFP figures come out lower than expected, EUR/USD may rally above 1.06600.