Gold has made a solid start to 2014, rising sharply after testing key support at $1180 on New Years' Eve to currently trade around $1230, well above the 20 DMA and 200 hour MA.
The downtrend that has been the dominant market force in gold since October remains intact and we expect another test of $1180 in the first month of this year. It is our expectation that the $1180 level will be breached on this test and gold will go on to test the major multi year support level at $1000-$1050 in the first quarter of 2014.
Equities continue to surge higher and there are no signs of a top forming, whilst the dollar has woken from its slumber and is moving back towards 81, a key level for the dollar.
The market action next week will be instructive, as traders return to their desks after a long holiday period and volumes return to normal, though for now we expect any rallies in gold to be snapped up as shorting opportunities.
Support can be found at $1220-$1225, $1214, $1210, $1200, $1190, $1188 and $1180. A break of $1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to $1000-$1050 in the short term.
Resistance can be found at $1237-$1240, $1245, $1250-$1255, $1268-$1270, $1277-$1280 and $1291-$1295. A break above $1268 would suggest an end to the short term down trend, though it would take a break of $1300 to suggest a more significant rally was developing.