Gold continued to rebound after hitting the lower boundary of the triangle consolidation at $1260 on Wednesday, with the price climbing as high as $1295 before finding resistance at the 200 hour MA.
This morning, gold is slightly lower in quiet trading, though is trading above the important $1277 level at around $1283.
Gold remains within the large triangle consolidation - we are watching for a breach of $1250 to confirm a downside break or alternatively a breach of $1350 to confirm an upside break and reversal in gold. Our preference is for a downside break and retest of $1180.
Importantly, the dollar has tested and held the 81 area, with this level now established as important near term support. Further dollar strength will translate into gold weakness as the inverse correlation between the two has been strong of late.
Equities remain at all time highs, with the S&P approaching $1800. We maintain our stance that gold will not sustain a meaningful rally unless or until equities correct in a substantial way.
Support can be found at $1277-$1280, $1260, $1250, $1207 and $1180. A break of $1180 would have serious bearish implications for gold and suggest a decline to $1000-$1050 as a minimum.
Resistance can be found at $1291, $1295, $1300, $1310, $1320-$1322, $1328-$1330, $1338-$1342, $1352-$1355 and $1360. A break above $1360 would suggest a new bull trend was underway, though it would take a break of $1434 to confirm this was the case, with a target of $1525 as a minimum.