Gold: Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch

Let's talk about the XAU/USD pair, folks! We are seeing mixed dynamics here, with the price consolidating near the 2350.00 mark. Investors are in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting new events that could move the quotations. The big expectation of the week is the U.S. employment report, which is released on Friday. This report is crucial to understand how the economy is doing and can give us clues about possible interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.

Currently, there is a 51% probability that the first rate cut will happen in September, with more cuts possible in November or December.

The dollar started the week under pressure due to weak macroeconomic data on business activity. The ISM manufacturing sector index fell from 49.2 to 48.7 in May, well below expectations.

On Wednesday, we have the Bank of Canada meeting, which may cut the reference rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%. This could set an interesting precedent. At the same time, the U.S. dollar might gain short-term momentum as the interest rate differential with the Fed would increase.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce a moderate easing of monetary policy, also by 25 basis points. This could increase the attractiveness of gold, which yields no interest but influences the dollar's dynamics.

In the gold futures market, the bullish trend continues. According to the CFTC, the number of net speculative positions increased from 229.8 thousand to 236.6 thousand last week. However, mixed operations indicate no clear direction in the market. Buyers reduced their positions by 17,018 contracts, while sellers decreased by 2,267 contracts.

Support and Resistance Levels
Let's go to the charts! On the daily, the "Bollinger Bands" show an attempt to reverse to a horizontal plane, with the price range remaining relatively wide. The MACD tries to reverse upwards but still maintains a sell signal. The Stochastic shows firmer growth, but little correlation with the actual market dynamics.

Resistances: 2354.65 | 2364.04 | 2378.39 | 2400.00
Supports: 2336.50 | 2320.00 | 2300.00 | 2285.00

Trading Scenarios Longs:
Entry: After breaking 2354.65 upwards
Target: 2378.39
Stop Loss: 2340.00
Time Frame: 2-3 days

Shorts:
Entry: After breaking 2336.50 downwards
Target: 2300.00
Stop Loss: 2354.65

Conclusion:
We are in a consolidation period after an attempt at corrective growth. With major economic events on the horizon, including U.S. employment reports and central bank meetings, the market is waiting for new catalysts. Meanwhile, buyers and sellers should be prepared for trading opportunities, taking advantage of critical support and resistance levels.