- Gold spot: We wrote: collapsed from the all time high leaving a significant double top risk with a moderately negative candle on the weekly chart now. With a weekly close almost unchanged, a shooting star candle has formed, which warns the bull run has ended, increasing risks to the downside. GOLD BROKE SUPPORT AT 1958/54 FOR ANOTHER SELL SIGNAL.
- Silver broke the head & shoulders neckline at 2540/20, but held very short term support at 2505/00, so a break below here today was a sell signal targeting 2400/2380.
- WTI crude April: I warned of a significant bull trap, which risks further losses this week. The break of important support at 104.80/30 was our next negative signal targeting 101.00/100.50 and 9930/9900.
(I will update if we move beyond the levels in the report).
Analysis
Gold has now been trending lower as we clearly warned yesterday. The break of support at 1958/54 was a short term sell signal targeting 1950/48, perhaps as far as 1942/40 today. In fact we could eventually fall as far as 1925/20 for a buying opportunity this week, stop below 1910. A break lower is the next sell signal. Gains are likely to be limited with minor resistance at 1955/58. If we continue higher expect strong resistance at 1975/78.
Silver's break of the head & shoulders neckline at 2540/20 yesterday was a sell signal. A break below 2490 is today's sell signal targeting 2460/40, then strong support at 2400/2380. Longs need stops below 2360. Bulls are in trouble now after the unexpected reversal on Wednesday. Gains are likely to be limited to 2525/35. Shorts need stops above 2545.
WTI crude April broke important support at 104.80/30 to target 101.00/100.50 and 9930/9900. I would not be surprised to see a test of strong support at 9750/9650, even today. Longs need stops below 9550. Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 104.40/80. Shorts need stops above 105.40.
Video Analysis