🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

Gold Is on the Cusp of 2 Huge Breakouts

Published 11/04/2024, 01:43 AM
XAU/USD
-
XAG/USD
-
NEM
-
GC
-
SI
-
GDX
-
GDXJ
-

There have been quite a few breakouts this year in precious metals.

None have been bigger or more significant than Gold breaking out of its 13-year cup and handle pattern and clearing $2100/oz easily.

Although it is overbought and could pause or correct, it remains bullish and on track for its $3,000/oz target. 

Other breakouts include Silver taking out four-year-long resistance around $29/oz and GDX doing the same, although it has reversed course, largely due to Newmont (NYSE:NEM) Mining’s weakness. But I digress.

There are two very important breakouts setting up that have hugely bullish long-term implications for precious metals.

First, is Gold against the 60/40 portfolio (total return), which is plotted in the chart below along with nominal Gold and Silver.

We are unable to see but Gold to 60/40 ratio closed October above the red resistance line and at a three-year high. This breakout is not confirmed and confirmation could require a few months. 

However, the larger point is the historical significance. After the ratios broke resistance in 1972 and 2002, it confirmed a new secular bull market in precious metals.Gold vs Silver Price Chart

Second, is the inflation-adjusted Gold price, closing in on a breakout from a 45-year base. 

According to MacroTrends data, the inflation-adjusted Gold price closed October at its second-highest level in history. It was only $3/oz away from an all-time high. 

Using Gold against the current CPI shows the third-highest monthly close ever and within 2% of an all-time high.

The inflation-adjusted Gold price is important because it is an excellent indicator for the long-term performance of gold stocks. Gold against the CPI correlates closely with gold mining margins. Inflation Adjusted Gold Price-Monthly Chart

Precious Metals are currently declining as they have enjoyed a strong run for many months. 

Silver tested monthly resistance at $35 and sold off while Gold reached $2800 but backed off. Days ago, the percentage of GDX and GDXJ stocks above the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving average was +95%.

The sector is cooling off and that is a good thing, as vertical moves lead to interim peaks.

Use this weakness to identify and focus on juniors with quality assets and value. 

You will want to position before Gold explodes higher against the 60/40 portfolio and breaks out of its 45-year base against inflation.  

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.