The Value Of Gold In Non-USD Terms

Published 06/09/2016, 03:11 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:32 AM
GBP/USD
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XAU/USD
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USD/NZD
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GC
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Most market experts and traders solely focus on gold in USD terms and hence since early 2013, we have been repeatedly hearing bearish views on gold.

What most traders/investors, market experts, finance students forget is that gold is valued in every paper currency terms and a sell-of in USD terms quite often means rally in non-USD terms.

Consider this for a thought - A sharp drop in XAU/USD (gold in USD terms) if often an early indicator that Greenback is about to embark on a broad based rally. In April 2013, gold fell sharply in dollar terms and that was immediately followed by sharp drop in Emerging Market (EM) and Asian currencies. Consequently, we also saw gold rally in EM and Asian currency terms.

Hence, I say gold is always shining in some or the other part of the world.

Now consider this - is buying gold in pound terms (if Britons vote in favor of brexit) a best option?

In my opinion, it is a best option, in fact better than shorting GBP/USD or other GBP pairs. The logic is simple. Brexit will also trigger financial market instability and that will push up safe haven demand for the metal. Plus, rate hike bets would drop further and that would add to Gold's strength. Hence, buying gold in pound terms is the best option.

On may occasions, buying gold in non-USD terms proves to be a better option. In fact, I would go a step further and say studying gold/non-USD charts give a clear idea regarding the trend in that particular currency.

For example, as of now XAU/NZD (Gold in terms of NZD) monthly chart shows the pair may form a classic head and shoulder.

XAU/NZD Monthly Chart

XAU/NZD Monthly Chart

Interpretation - Possiblity of head and shoulder formation on the monthly chart indicates NZD is likely to see broad based rally across the board or gold is likely to suffer sharp losses in USD terms. However, as of now, gold in USD terms appears resilient and on track to take out $1300 levels. Consequently, the above chart tells me NZD is likely to see a broad based rally,

The bullish NZD view is at a risk of monthly closing in XAU/NZD above 1919 levels.

A sharp drop in NZD terms also means gold is likely to strengthen in terms of those currencies which could in the near future drop sharply against NZD.

So once again, we see that gold is always...always shining in some or the other part of the world.

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