Gold Surges to a Record High on USD Weakness
Gold (XAU/USD) hit a record high on Friday, bolstered by a weaker US dollar (USD) and declining bond yields. Rising expectations of a substantial US interest rate cut this week fueled demand for safe-haven assets.
Gold rose above $2,580 per ounce on Friday. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, Fed fund futures show a 59% chance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) opting for a 50-basis-point (bps) cut and a 41% probability of a 25-bps reduction. This follows weak August nonfarm payroll data and signs of softening in the labor market. Lowering US inflation and the European Central Bank's recent interest rate cut show confidence in declining regional inflation, which supports gold prices.
Additionally, US political uncertainty ahead of the November election and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to support demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Reports of a second assassination attempt on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at his Florida golf club this Sunday have further increased demand for bullion. The continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict, increasing instability and the risk of escalating tensions in the Middle East also support XAU/USD.
XAU/USD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, no major macroeconomic events could trigger a strong move in the market. This week, investors will be closely watching the crucial Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest decision and the policy meetings of the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, which could introduce market volatility and influence the movement of gold.
"Spot gold may test resistance at $2,598 per ounce, as a break above could open the way towards the $2,611 to $2,619 range", said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
Euro Is in an Uptrend, But Tension Rises Ahead of Fed Rate Cut Decision
The euro (EUR/USD) was essentially unchanged against the US dollar (USD) on Friday despite reports that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be willing to cut its base rate by 50 basis points (bps) later this week.
There is no doubt that the Fed will reduce its interest rate at the 18 September meeting, but there is still a large degree of uncertainty about the size of the cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders have priced in a 59% probability of a 50-bps rate reduction and a 41% probability of a smaller 25-bps rate cut. Wall Street Journal and Financial Times reported that a more significant reduction was still an option for the US central bank and that former Fed officials were arguing for an ‘outsized cut’. At the same time, Friday's US Consumer Sentiment report came out higher than expected, rising to a four-month high in September and raising doubts about the size of a reduction. Overall, the uneasiness may continue haunting the markets until the Fed provides clear guidance this Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) has already indicated that it doesn't intend to cut the rates too hastily. Thus, the divergence in monetary policy expectations between the ECB and the Fed continues to favor the euro. Interest rate swaps market data implies that traders currently expect the Fed to be two times more dovish than the ECB over the next 12 months.
EUR/USD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's macroeconomic calendar doesn't feature any significant market-moving events, so volatility may remain low. Traders will likely avoid opening large positions ahead of the highly anticipated Fed decision this Wednesday.
Pound Grows Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
GBP/USD moved bullishly near its one-week high of 1.31600 on Friday as traders expected a US rate cut and the U.K.'s key rate to remain unchanged this week.
Bulls were encouraged by reports indicating that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could consider a significant 500-basis-point (bps) rate cut. The large reduction could significantly increase GBP/USD's exchange rate, potentially testing its 2024 high at 1.3270. Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now a 59% probability of a 50-bps rate reduction at Wednesday's meeting, up from less than 50% chance days earlier. Henry Allen, a macro strategist with Deutsche Bank, stated:
"A couple of articles published in the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times suggested that a 50-basis-point move was still possible, which led markets to re-evaluate their expectations once again. This was surprising to investors, who had increasingly been pricing in a 25-basis-point rate increase, not least following Wednesday's slightly stronger-than-expected core CPI inflation print".
In contrast, the Bank of England (BOE) is expected to maintain its current interest rate unchanged at 5% on Thursday. IRPR indicates an 80% likelihood of this scenario after the 25-bps reduction last month. The result is that US rates are seen moving lower faster than the U.K. base rate, which should support GBP. The question is when the BOE will follow the path of other central banks and continue to cut the key rate. On Wednesday, the market will wait for U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will give more clues on future BOE monetary policy.
GBP/USD has been trading bullish during Asian and early European trading hours. The pair tries to break above and hold the 1.31600 resistance level. Today, no major events could influence the pair's dynamics. Analysts predict low volatility while maintaining the already established trends.