Gold Jumps by Another 3% in One-Day
The gold (XAU/USD) price surged by almost 3% and hit a new all-time high on Thursday. The escalating trade war between the US and China fuelled safe-haven demand and intensified concerns about global economic growth.
US President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports towards 125% after China retaliated against previous US duties with an 84% tariff rate. According to the White House, the total US duty on Chinese imports is now 145%. Rising tariffs intensify fears about the global economy's health and create a general sense of uneasiness among investors, prompting them to buy the bullion.
Yesterday's gold rally was additionally fuelled by a drop in the US Dollar Index (DXY) after the US Labour Department data showed a surprise drop in consumer prices. Following the data, traders increased their bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume cutting interest rates in June and probably reduce its policy rate by a percentage point by the end of the year.
"Gold regains its safe-haven appeal and gets back on track for new all-time highs. However, prospects of deals with trading partners pose a significant risk to gold's upside potential, as they could renew pressure on the metal. Additionally, headwinds may arise from pared-back Fed rate cut bets that can strengthen the dollar", said Nikos Tzabouras, senior Market Analyst at Tradu.com.
XAU/USD rose during the Asian and early European trading session. The market continues to focus on the unfolding trade tariff tensions. Investors closely monitor developments, assess potential economic repercussions, and adjust their portfolios in response to the ongoing uncertainty. Today's set of US macroeconomic statistics may additionally fuel further volatility and influence investors' expectations of the path of US interest rates. The Producer Price Index (PPI) data is due at 12:30 p.m. UTC, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is due at 2:00 p.m. UTC. The reports may affect gold and other USD-related pairs.
Euro Rockets on Weak US Economic Data
The euro (EUR/USD) gained 2.25% against the US dollar (USD) on Thursday. The greenback weakened substantially following the release of a much weaker-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
Labor Department data showed that US consumer prices unexpectedly fell in March. Investors immediately started to price in more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Now, interest rate swaps market data imply more than a 36% chance of 75 basis points worth of rate cuts by the Fed by the end of October. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to deliver only 50 basis points worth of rate cuts over the same period.
However, the improvement in US inflation is unlikely to be sustained in the wake of tariffs. Investors' dovish expectations regarding the Fed could be misplaced, suggesting that EUR/USD is at risk of a sharp downward correction. As for trade tariff concerns, the situation has stabilised a little. Although US President Donald Trump maintained a 10% blanket import duty on most imports, he granted a 90-day freeze on reciprocal tariffs. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission Chief, said the EU would pause its first countermeasures against US tariffs after Trump's pause. The news was treated positively by investors, driving EUR/USD higher.
EUR/USD rose during the Asian session, but after reaching a strong resistance in the 1.13700 area, the pair started to pull back during the early European trading hours. The market now focuses on developments around trade tariffs. Investors will continue monitoring developments, assessing potential economic repercussions, and adjusting their portfolios in response to the ongoing uncertainty. Additionally, a set of US macroeconomic statistics may fuel more volatility and affect expectations of US interest rate directions. US Producer Price Index (PPI) data is due at 12:30 p.m. UTC, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is due at 2:00 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected figures may trigger a downward correction in EUR/USD and bring it towards 1.11500. Conversely, lower-than-expected results may pull the pair higher towards 1.13700 again.
Bitcoin Drops as Risk Sentiment Doesn't Improve
The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price dropped by 3.7% on Thursday as risk sentiment increased amid fears over long-term tariff effects on the global economy.
Continuing geopolitical tensions significantly dampen investor appetite for risky assets such as cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. The escalating trade disputes between major economic powers like the US and China and rising concerns about the overall health and stability of the global economy harm investors' risk sentiment. Upcoming US macroeconomic data releases and new developments related to the unfolding US-China trade war further exacerbate risk-averse sentiment. Earlier this week, Bitcoin's price fluctuated due to announcements and subsequent pauses on new US trade tariffs for most countries except China. News about tariffs triggered a sharp drop in BTC/USD, but the announcement of a 90-day pause led to a recovery in the crypto market. However, the underlying tensions and the fact that tariffs on China remain in place have kept the market on edge.
According to MarketPulse, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced consecutive days of outflows in early April. Some investors were pulling their funds from the asset, which could exert downward pressure on BTC/USD. Still, despite the short-term volatility and bearish signals, some experts hold long-term bullish views on Bitcoin. They predict BTC/USD prices may reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, driven by increasing global adoption of cryptocurrencies.
BTC/USD rose during the Asian and early European trading session. Today, trade tariffs remain the main factor contributing to market volatility. Investors will closely monitor developments, assess potential economic repercussions, and adjust their portfolios to the ongoing uncertainty. Additionally, US macroeconomic statistics may fuel additional volatility and influence investors' expectations of the US interest rates direction. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) report will come out at 12:30 p.m. UTC, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is due at 2:00 p.m. UTC.