Gold prices continue to experience an upward trend, reaching 2368 USD per troy ounce, fuelled by growing market anticipation of a potential rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. As investors focus on upcoming US inflation data, gold remains a focal point of investment interest.
In his recent testimony before Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted June's improved yet uncertain economic indicators. He noted the need for more comprehensive data to solidify inflation forecasts and hinted at concerns over a slowing economy and a cooling job market. These developments are considered critical drivers for the speculated rate cut in September, currently perceived as likely by 73% of market analysts.
Additionally, increased investment flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) bolster gold's appeal, marking a second consecutive month of positive cash inflows. This investment trend underscores gold's role as a safe-haven asset amid financial market uncertainties.
Technical analysis of XAU/USD
Gold's XAU/USD trajectory on the H4 chart shows a potential movement towards the 2337.43 USD level. A rebound to 2365.20 USD could follow, testing this resistance from below. The market may then gear up for a further downward movement towards 2281.66 USD, potentially extending to 2175.00 USD. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which is currently at its peak and poised for a downward adjustment towards the zero level.
On the H1 chart, gold is consolidating around the 2365.20 USD mark. A downward break is anticipated, targeting 2337.43 USD as the immediate goal. Should this level be reached, a subsequent upward correction back to 2365.20 USD is likely. This scenario is validated by the stochastic oscillator, which signals a potential decline from its current high position near 80, suggesting a near-term downward correction before further gains.
As the market navigates through these potential movements, investors remain vigilant, watching closely for any new economic data or policy shifts that could influence gold's price dynamics and the broader financial landscape.
By RoboForex Analytical Department
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.