Gold Continues to Fall
Gold (XAU/USD) declined by over 2.4% yesterday, settling near the $2,600 support level. Experts believe this correction could lead to a further decrease.
Traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to soften its stance on interest rates, given that Donald Trump's policies may drive economic growth and inflation. The decline in gold prices paused around $2,600 as investors worry that the new President's protectionist policies could impact the global economy, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, growth prospects for gold remain limited due to the continued strengthening of the US dollar (USD). Traders are also cautious ahead of the upcoming US Consumer Inflation report and remarks from key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members.
Meanwhile, the US dollar hit new highs after Trump's election victory, prompting significant gold sales on Monday. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that the Fed would need more evidence of inflation reaching its 2% target before considering further rate cuts. Traders are waiting for statements from FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who may offer insights on the future direction of interest rates. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, there is a 65% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut at the next Fed meeting.
In the short term, XAU/USD may continue its decline, potentially breaking below the $2,600 support level and reaching $2,575. Investors are currently closing their positions in gold in favour of riskier assets.
Euro Remains Under Pressure as Trump's Policies Threaten the Eurozone Economy
The euro (EUR/USD) fell by 0.6%, reaching a fresh six-month low against the US dollar (USD) on Monday. Investors continued to favour the greenback over the euro following the Republican victory in the US presidential and congressional elections.
The US dollar is expected to benefit from the incoming Trump administration. Indeed, planned mass deportations of illegal immigrants may put upward pressure on US wages, while the introduction of new tariffs could drive up import costs. If these policies accelerate nationwide inflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be forced to adopt a tighter monetary policy, keeping high interest rates longer. This would widen the interest rate differential between the eurozone and the US, exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD.
Additionally, broad-based tariffs of 10–20% on all US imports could harm the eurozone economy. These policies may prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut rates more aggressively, widening the interest rate gap even further. However, it's unclear whether Trump's plans will have a lasting inflationary effect. For now, their impact on US monetary policy is minimal, meaning the recent decline in EUR/USD is largely driven by forward-looking expectations. Thus, EUR/USD bears should be cautious as the pair may experience a sharp rebound.
EUR/USD continued to decline during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is relatively quiet, though EUR pairs might experience additional volatility due to Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index report at 10:00 a.m. UTC. A stronger-than-expected figure could trigger a slight recovery above 1.06770, while weaker data might extend the decline towards 1.06200.
Japanese Yen Declines as DXY Strengthens
USD/JPY rose by 0.71% on Monday as the US Dollar Index (DXY) reached its highest level in over four months, with 'Trump Trades' continuing to dominate financial markets.
Expectations of a second term for President Trump, alongside a potential Republican takeover of Congress, have driven optimism for regulatory rollbacks and tax cuts, which could boost economic growth and potentially increase inflation. This scenario could limit the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to reduce interest rates further. Also, Trump's plans to raise tariffs on key trading partners, particularly China and the eurozone, along with tighter immigration policies, have added to concerns over inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) recently had its October monetary policy meeting, where policymakers disagreed on the timing of future rate adjustments. Some officials voiced worries over the economic uncertainties and increased market volatility, especially given the yen's significant depreciation. Despite these concerns, the BOJ maintained its projection to raise the benchmark interest rate towards 1% in the second half of 2025. In response to the yen's weakness, Finance Minister Katsu Kato signalled that the Japanese government might take 'appropriate measures' to address foreign exchange volatility.
USD/JPY was moving sideways during the Asian and early European hours. Two key economic releases this week could impact the pair's movement. The Japanese Producer Price Index is due at 11:50 p.m. UTC today. Stronger-than-expected figures may trigger a correction in USD/JPY, while weaker data could support the pair. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will come out tomorrow at 1:30 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected number could push USD/JPY to new highs, while softer data may trigger a downward correction.