XAU/USD, gold priced in USD has been rallying since May's low of 1338.06. It stalled after it tagged a previous support around 1419.65. It then started to coil - or trade in a triangle, with lower highs, and higher lows. The price is coiling around the 1400 handle, which is a price gold has been gravitating towards. The low volatility shows that the market has become less and less committed in either direction.
Event risks, monitoring breakouts: Gold itself would gain if central banks continue easing measures, and the direction of XAU/USD therefore should rely on what the market things the Fed will do with QE- point to an exit or not. The Bank of England and European Central Bank both conclude their interest rate policy meeting Thursday. With price already near apex, the market will likely break anyway, so this first break out of the triangle should be tentative because Friday's US NFP still looms ahead.
After the US NFP, if there is a break and hold above 1420, or a break and hold below 1384, then we might have a more significant swing in the breakout direction.