As the year draws to a close, pundits are busy forecasting prices for key commodities for 2013 with some of them reversing their earlier views. Forecasting is inherently risky as several variables can impact demand of any commodity including factors that are not directly related to the commodity.
An analysis of Comex Gold, April charts and April Gold futures chart of India’s Multi Commodity Exchange on the assumption that trend repeats itself and that current prices of a far month contract reflect market expectations of prices at time of contract expiry, shows that gold prices can move positively up to $1760 levels in Q1 2013 but could fall afterward.
On the other hand there is less likelihood of prices falling beyond current levels, as the charts indicate. However, the weak head and shoulder pattern or absence of a strong right shoulder indicate that recovery may not be smooth. In the chart above the second shoulder denoted by a small 's' is weak compared to the 'S' on the left side indicating recovery in the coming months could be weak.
Fundamental factors and the unequal comparison with price movements in August to December period also may impact the sharpness of the chart based outlook.
The MCX Gold April charts also mirror Comex Gold charts with a much weaker right should represented by 's,' which makes a retest of the earlier high of 33400 difficult.
By Sreekumar Raghavan
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Gold April Charts Indicate Possible Recovery To $1760 in Q1, 2013
Published 12/20/2012, 06:36 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
Gold April Charts Indicate Possible Recovery To $1760 in Q1, 2013
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