After a weaker than expected start, gold continue to break lower as the short sellers tried to take gold to test previous low at $1269 area. Sellers continue to dominate the marketplace since there is a lack of physical and paper gold buyers.
Physical demand has not reached the “insatiable” level that was made back in April sell-off. We maintain our bearish view on gold and the selling to continue a little longer. In a healthy market, the sellers usually will face exhaustion and we felt that the gold market soon consolidate before any significant rebound.
The new low is set at $1269 but we felt that the market could retest low before a potential rebound. Only a break above $1325 will give bulls some comfort but we see a potential low at $1250 for now. Otherwise, we felt that a major short covering could be on the cards if the situation allows.
-- Resistance: $1325, $1366, $1423
-- Support: $1269, $1250, $1200
Traders Notes: Buy at $1230 - $1260 small contract to accumulate – Stop Loss at $1225 with target at $1318 and $1340.
Silver remains under selling pressure and trap within a downtrend channel of a bearish market. A depressed and low growth economic situation has not helped silver as an industrial metal. In addition, its price is heavily influenced by gold after all it is considered as the cheaper alternative. Investors favour lower silver prices and we may continue to see it weaken before any rebound rally. Should we see short covering in gold, we can expect silver to benefit from a relief rally but a continued downward trend will continue for now.
-- Resistance: $21.51, $22.35, $25.59
-- Support: $19.38, $19.00