Upon analyzing the movements of the Gold Futures since Feb. 28, 2025, I anticipate the formation of a bearish doji amid bearish deliberation, indicating a steep slide is likely to start on Friday since the gold futures are trading at a psychological height.
Undoubtedly, gold futures are teetering at the highest point at $3000 levels due to surging concerns over the impact of tariff trade tussles and the retaliatory moves by some countries. This has pushed this non-yield assist to such a height, making it a right candidate for the big bears.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia supported a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine in principle but sought several clarifications and conditions that appeared to rule out a quick end to the fighting.
Secondly, gold bugs are waiting for the final interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve in its meeting, scheduled for Mar. 18-19, 2025. The current consensus anticipates that rates will remain unchanged due to persistent inflation and ongoing trade disputes.
Thirdly, President Donald Trump favors higher interest rates to keep the US Dollar stronger, making the current situation vulnerable for the Fed’s members to remain focused on their goal to continue with more interest rate cuts.
On the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia supported a US proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine in principle but sought several clarifications and conditions to rule out a quick end to the fighting.
Meanwhile, trade chaos is at the top today as investors have to grapple with another potential worry from Washington – a partial U.S. government shutdown, which may come as soon as this Saturday at 12:01 a.m.
On Friday, European Central Bank (ECB) President, Christine Lagarde expressed her concern about the potential impacts of a full-scale global trade war in an interview with BBC on Friday. She further highlighted that such a conflict would particularly harm the United States and could stimulate Europe’s drive towards unity.
I anticipate that in such an indecisive atmosphere, gold is likely to lose some shine if the gold futures close this week below the significant support at 20 DMA at $2928.
Inversely, an upward move above the immediate resistance at $3034 will provide a good opportunity to shoot this flying saucer with a stop-loss at $3074.
Technical Levels to Watch
In the daily chart, gold futures are likely to remain bullish if sustain above $3011 due to the formation of a bullish crossover by 9 DMA which has come above the 20 DMA and could result in a continuation of current bullishness only to test the immediate resistance at $3034.
But if the gold futures are not able to find a breakout, the selling spree is likely to push them below the immediate support at $2968.
In the weekly chart, gold futures look extremely indecisive, since they are trading at a psychological high that could attract big bears to shoot this flying saucer any time if not hold above the immediate resistance at $3034.
Undoubtedly fall could be steeper from this psychological height as a breakdown below the 50 DMA at $2593 during the next week could ensure a deep correction.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold futures at their own risk as this analysis is based only on observations.