Below looks at the oldest miner index in the states -- XAU -- over the past decade. The XAU appears to be kissing potentially important resistance levels.
All mining indices are strongly up this year yet remain well below 2011 levels. Is this year's rally nothing more than a counter-trend rally in a long-term down trend? It's too soon to tell.
At this point, the long-term trend is lower -- lower highs and lower lows over the past 5 years. The strong rally has the XAU index testing the “underside” of its 61% retracement level of the huge decline from 2011 to 2016. At the same time it was kissing the underside of the 61% line, it was also testing falling resistance and its 2013 highs at (1).
The risk-on trade would love to see the XAU index breakout at (1).
The risk-on miners trade does not want to see selling start and break resistance at (2), as a break of support after potentially kissing resistance could usher in more selling pressure.