Market movers today
A very eventful week starts rather slowly with the big event today being inflation data in Norway ( see Scandi markets) and the last day of the Brexit debate ahead of the vote in the UK House of Commons. Otherwise, key events this week are monetary policy decisions in the euro area, Norway and Switzerland, flash market PMIs and CPI inflation in the US and Sweden. Also, market focus will remain on global trade war concerns, general risk appetite and the oil price following Friday's OPEC+ deal.
With respect to Brexit , it seems unlikely PM Theresa May's Brexit deal will be passed tomorrow despite her attempt to secure public and political backing. As a defeat is widely expected, markets would react to the size of the defeat, although we doubt the market reaction would be significant, as political uncertainty is likely to remain elevated. Many political analysts say it is likely that May will try to hold a second vote in the House of Commons at a later stage. What happens if the deal is voted down a second time? Well, then we are in uncharted territory, which opens up for a range of possible outcomes. We have updated our game tree of the Brexit end-game. See Brexit monitor: Vote on Tuesday is not the final word in the Brexit saga , 9 December.
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