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GLD And SPY Signals

Published 08/24/2012, 02:43 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
SPY
-1.71%
GC
-0.03%
GLD
-0.09%
SELL
0.00%

The MarketClub ETF Portfolio/strategy created earlier this year has been quiet this summer as all four ETFs were on either a neutral or short (sell) signal. At its core, the service is a trend-following trading system. The strategy I created tracks MarketClub’s Trade Triangle buy/sell signals on four ETFs – the U.S. Oil ETF (USO), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (FXE), and the Gold ETF (GLD). For background on the portfolio please see my initial article on the portfolio here.

This portfolio should be looked at more as a collection of trades, rather than a comprehensive portfolio. The reason the “portfolio” has been so quiet this summer is the four ETFs tend to be highly correlated, so when one is on a signal, the other ETFs have a high probability of sharing the same signal. This is not a fault of the signals, but in my choice of ETFs. I may add some uncorrelated ETFs, such as TLT, in the near future in order to increase the number of signals and offer a better overall representation of potential applications of the signals.

MarketClub is a sponsor of Scott’s Investments, but these trades/tests are conducted in near real-time (I typically don’t have time during the day to publish the trades, so I post them in the evening). My objective is to track and test, out-of-sample, the effectiveness of their trade signals.

Two long trades have been signaled on GLD and SPY in the past week. A monthly trade triangle was triggered today (8/23) for GLD at 162.18. SPY had a monthly trade triangle signal last week (8/16) at 141.66. My blog update regarding the SPY signal is tardy, but I will track the portfolio using the 8/16 signal price.

The MarketClub chart for SPY is below:

SPY CHART

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