Market Movers Today
In the euro area there will be attention on industrial production for August after a sharp drop in the German figure has created fears of a more severe slowdown in Europe. We expect industrial production in the euro area to have declined 1.1% m/m in August driven by the 4.0% m/m drop in Germany. A more resilient euro figure should underscore that calendar distortions in connection with the summer holiday was probably the main explanation for the weak German figure. However, we also expect the German ZEW indicator to decline further in October, emphasising that the economy continues to lose momentum but not as severely as suggested by industrial production.
EU finance ministers will convene in connection with the ecofin meeting. EU recommendations on member states' fiscal and economic policy will remain the main topic. The European court of justice will also today start its hearing of the legality of ECB's OMT programme. There will not be a ruling today, but when the ruling is ready it is expected to be scrutinised closely by the German Constitutional Court.
In the UK we expect the increase in consumer prices to have eased further to 1.4% y/y in September from 1.5% y/y in August. This is the lowest level of inflation since September 2009 and underscores that downward pressure on inflation at the moment is a global phenomenon driven not least by lower gasoline prices.
In the US the only notable data release is NFIB small business confidence for September and focus will mainly be on Q3 earning reports.
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