The German Dax index is probably tracing a 4th wave triangle. As a consequence, the German blue chips index has not gone anywhere since July of last year. That's 12-Months of complex sideways price action! A resolution to the upside probably kicks in soon. Our base case needs another down sequence within wave e(circle) before the rally takes off.
The alternative scenario is depicted in red. It suggests that the complex sideways correction finished already. Moreover, the entire cycle is complete within this scenario. An Orthodox top occurred in May 2008. Wave action since then is a leading diagonal to the downside.
The black scenario has a higher probability. Triangles are more common than double-3 corrections at this point. Moreover, all price action takes place within a long-term trend, which is depicted in green.
All in all, more upside is likely within both scenarios. We've mentioned earlier that there are some unfilled opening gaps around 13k points. These are very often at least retested.
