German Bond Market - Technical Analysis for Bunds, Bobl, Schatz

Published 11/16/2011, 09:48 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:32 AM
*Report released 6am GMTBund:Bunds failed to carry out downside potential, and came higher, breaking 138.91 for 139.07 which was our next resistance target. We have eased from these higher levels and that has unwound the short term overbought scenario.

This morning we look to 138.54/57 as a guide to direction. Failure to break above here would keep the market looking weaker and see a retreat back to 138.26/20. Initially cover shorts to here. We need to reinstate shorts on a break of 138.20 as a loss of this support keeps the pressure to the downside and targets 137.83 to 137.73.

Now of we break 138.61 it would be quite worrying to the sellers and we should see
the buyers take the lead and once more 139.07 to 139.19 will be the targeted area. Bobl:Bobl moved higher, but we held shorts as our 123.15 stop was never activated. We are looking today to be under a little bit more pressure and we see the market coming lower towards our first short term fib level of 123.42.

Here we would cover our shorts and wait for the next move.

Only below 123.31 would we be inclined to sell further this market and we would then be looking for further weakness down to 123/122.94 where again we look to cover.

We still advocate selling into strength and we would only be worried if we managed to break the previous highs of 124.15...Only then would we be looking to reverse shorts for 124.36.

Schatz: Schatz retesting the 110.18 level and topped out at 110.19 as we look for a test of contract highs at 110.22/23. Use this as a selling opportunity at this stage.

Back below 110.11/10 today look for 110.06 before 110.03/02. Very good support lies at 109.99/98 and this should hold the downside today so use this as a buying opportunity, with stops needed below 109.95.

110.18 is the level to beat for a test of contract highs at 110.22/23. Shorts here need stops above 110.26 for 110.29 and then 110.34/35

 

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