In Sweden , the week ahead looks slow, at least when browsing the calendar. The only data of any interest is industrial and retail inventory data (Monday at 09:30 CEST), which will be some of the last major input to our final estimate for Swedish Q1 GDP growth. Official Swedish GDP data are due on 30 May and our preliminary estimate is 2.5% y/y work-day-adjusted.
On Tuesday, the Riksbank will present its proposal for a new target variable. We believe that the Riksbank will propose a change to the CPIF target, but not a new tolerance (or for that matter a target) interval because it is not clearly beneficial to the credibility of the inflation target.
In Norway , the week brings GDP figures for Q1. Data in so far generally suggest that growth in the Norwegian economy is picking up. We expect mainland GDP to climb 0.6% q/q, which is above both the trend rate (0.5%) and Norges Bank's projection in the March monetary policy report (0.43%).
In Denmark , the statistical office publishes its GDP indicator for Q1 on Monday. Private consumption seems to have made a decent start to 2017 and the statistics for business revenue are also pointing up. On the other hand, exports seem to have taken a breather after a very healthy Q4, due mainly to a decline in sales of goods produced abroad. We forecast GDP growth of 0.4% in Q1.
The Danish Debt Management Office will open DGB 0.25% Nov'20 on 17 May. The new bond will from the outset replace the former 2Y benchmark DGB Nov'18 on the primary list of on-the-run bonds.
We recommend buying the new DGB'20 at the auction against either DGB'18 or DGB'19 to capitalise on an expected issuance premium of 2-3bp and the steepness of the DGB curve relative to the German curve.
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