In Sweden , the week ahead is quite busy. Exempli gratia, Q3 GDP data (due out Tuesday at 09:30 CET), where we estimate an outcome of 0.2% q/q and 2.7% y/y. On Monday (at 09.30 CET), retail sales and trade balance data (both pertaining to October) are due out, where improvements should be in the offing (as the SEK has weakened. Beware of J-curve effects on imports, though).
Sweden is tapping in the 3Y and 10Y benchmarks on Wednesday. Given our expectations for further easing by the Riksbank and the new traffic-light regulation, combined with the recent widening of the spreads, we think the auction is an opportunity to buy Sweden.
In Norway we expect retail sales to remain weak until inflation begins to slow but we nevertheless estimate a slight positive correction in October, with retail sales climbing 0.4% m/m. This is supported by consumer confidence being on the way up and entering positive territory in Q4 for the first time in 18 months.
We expect the NAV jobless rate (due Friday) to be unchanged at 2.8% in November and gross unemployment to be more or less unchanged. The week also brings PMI data for November on Thursday.
In Denmark the week brings currency reserve data for November on Friday. The reserves have been very stable in recent months and while Trump's election victory has triggered some big currency movements in November, we do not expect it to have led to any significant fluctuations in Denmark. GDP figures for Q3 are due to be released on Wednesday. Statistics Denmark's initial indicator pointed to growth of 0.2% q/q, and we estimate the detailed figures will show this was due mainly to stock building.
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