The British pound has soared today, following the U.S. inflation report. GBP/USD is trading at 1.1661, up a massive 2.7%.
U.S. Dollar Retreats as Inflation Falls
The October inflation report was lower than what everyone had expected, which has triggered strong volatility in the currency markets. The U.S. dollar is sharply lower against the majors, as the markets are expecting the Fed to ease up on interest rates after today’s favourable inflation data.
Headline CPI dropped to 7.9%, down from 8.2% in September and below the consensus of 8.0%. Core inflation slowed to 6.3%, down from 6.6% and lower than the forecast of 6.5%. The surprisingly low numbers have turned rate pricing on its head. Prior to the inflation release, the markets had priced in 55% for a 50 bp increase and 45% for a 75-bp hike. This has changed to 80-20 in favor of a 50-bp hike, which has sent the U.S. dollar into a broad retreat.
The Fed may end up delivering a 50-bp move in December, but investors should remind themselves that this doesn’t mean the Fed is going soft. It wasn’t too long ago that a 0.50% hike was considered ‘supersize;’ it’s only in comparison to 0.75% or full-point moves that a 0.50% increase can be considered dovish. Secondly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at last month’s meeting that the terminal rate would be higher than previously expected, a clear sign that the Fed remains hawkish.
The UK releases key data on Friday, and the markets are braced for soft readings. GDP for the third quarter is expected to slow to -0.5% QoQ, down from 0.2% in the second quarter. Manufacturing Production for September is expected at -0.4%, which would mark the third decline in four months. If these releases are weaker than expected, the pound could give back some of today’s huge gains.
GBP/USD Technical
- There is resistance at 1.1767 and 1.1844
- 1.1609 and 1.1505 and providing support
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