The GBP/USD pair climbed to 1.3064 on Thursday, marking a 2.46% gain over the past four weeks and a 2.87% increase against the US Dollar over the last 12 months. The British pound continues to strengthen, outperforming many of its major counterparts.
Key Factors Driving GBP/USD Rally
The UK is closely monitoring developments in US tariffs, which could have significant implications for its economy. While the new tariffs potentially threaten global trade, the UK remains in a relatively favourable position compared to the EU, Canada, China, and Mexico.
Reasons for the UK’s advantage:
- The US baseline tariff rate for the UK is just 10% – the lowest among major US trading partners.
- The UK’s trade relationship with the US is relatively balanced, with a smaller share of reciprocal trade, reducing immediate risks.
However, uncertainty looms. Policymakers anticipate a possible reversal of US tariffs, but the broader impact remains unpredictable, whether on inflation, global GDP, or trade dynamics.
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD
- The pair has broken through 1.2988, surging towards 1.3095
- A pullback to retest 1.2988 (now acting as support) could occur before another upward push towards 1.3103.
- MACD confirmation: The signal line remains above zero and is trending upwards, supporting bullish momentum
- After consolidating around 1.2988, the pair broke higher, targeting 1.3095
- Once this level is reached, a correction back to 1.2988 could follow
- Stochastic indicator: the signal line is above 80 but turning downwards, suggesting a potential near-term exhaustion.
Conclusion
The pound’s resilience against the dollar reflects both fundamental strength and technical momentum. While the UK benefits from a less exposed trade stance, traders should watch tariff developments and key technical levels to gauge the next significant move.
By RoboForex Analytical Department
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.