The GBP/USD pair is experiencing moderate growth, consolidating near the 1.2665 level, awaiting new impulses in the market. Last week, the dollar failed to maintain a firm upward dynamic, allowing the British pound to recover some of its lost positions. This movement was influenced by investors' focus on the possibility of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Data released on Friday about the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index showed a slowdown in inflation, which increased expectations that the Fed might start easing monetary policy in September. It is speculated that, throughout 2024, the Fed could implement at least two rate cuts, each of 25 basis points. In parallel, the Bank of England is expected to adopt a more dovish stance due to concerns about persistent inflation in the country.
On Friday, June 28, UK statistics reinforced the possibility of a wait-and-see stance from the monetary authorities. The third and final estimate of Q1 GDP showed a growth of 0.7% quarterly and 0.3% annually, surpassing the forecasts of 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively. This was the best performance among G7 countries. Real household income fell by 0.7% and business investment decreased by 0.5%, below the expected 0.9%.
Today, at 10:30 (GMT+2), UK consumer credit statistics will be released. The net credit volume is expected to have increased from 3.1 billion to 3.3 billion pounds sterling in May, while the number of mortgage applications probably slowed from 61.14 thousand to 61.0 thousand.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands indicate a downward trend, with the price range narrowing, reflecting mixed trading in the short term. The MACD points to growth, forming a new buy signal, with the histogram attempting to position itself above the signal line. The Stochastic, in turn, also shows a downward trend, retreating from the "20" level and suggesting a possible upward development in the coming periods.
Resistance Levels: 1.2700, 1.2739, 1.2771, 1.2800
Support Levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2568, 1.2539
Trading Scenarios
Long Positions: Can be considered after a firm break of the 1.2700 level, targeting 1.2800. Place the Stop Loss at 1.2650. Time frame: 2-3 days.
Short Positions: The return of the bearish dynamic and subsequent break of the 1.2600 level downward could signal the opening of new short positions, targeting 1.2500. Place the Stop Loss at 1.2650.
With a keen eye on Fed movements and UK statistics, the market continues to adjust its expectations, offering opportunities for both bulls and bears. Stay tuned for upcoming economic data and prepare your strategies!
Data released on Friday about the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index showed a slowdown in inflation, which increased expectations that the Fed might start easing monetary policy in September. It is speculated that, throughout 2024, the Fed could implement at least two rate cuts, each of 25 basis points. In parallel, the Bank of England is expected to adopt a more dovish stance due to concerns about persistent inflation in the country.
On Friday, June 28, UK statistics reinforced the possibility of a wait-and-see stance from the monetary authorities. The third and final estimate of Q1 GDP showed a growth of 0.7% quarterly and 0.3% annually, surpassing the forecasts of 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively. This was the best performance among G7 countries. Real household income fell by 0.7% and business investment decreased by 0.5%, below the expected 0.9%.
Today, at 10:30 (GMT+2), UK consumer credit statistics will be released. The net credit volume is expected to have increased from 3.1 billion to 3.3 billion pounds sterling in May, while the number of mortgage applications probably slowed from 61.14 thousand to 61.0 thousand.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands indicate a downward trend, with the price range narrowing, reflecting mixed trading in the short term. The MACD points to growth, forming a new buy signal, with the histogram attempting to position itself above the signal line. The Stochastic, in turn, also shows a downward trend, retreating from the "20" level and suggesting a possible upward development in the coming periods.
Resistance Levels: 1.2700, 1.2739, 1.2771, 1.2800
Support Levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2568, 1.2539
Trading Scenarios
Long Positions: Can be considered after a firm break of the 1.2700 level, targeting 1.2800. Place the Stop Loss at 1.2650. Time frame: 2-3 days.
Short Positions: The return of the bearish dynamic and subsequent break of the 1.2600 level downward could signal the opening of new short positions, targeting 1.2500. Place the Stop Loss at 1.2650.
With a keen eye on Fed movements and UK statistics, the market continues to adjust its expectations, offering opportunities for both bulls and bears. Stay tuned for upcoming economic data and prepare your strategies!