Market participants returned online after the Easter holiday and we welcome you to a hopefully profitable new trading week despite a relatively light economic calendar.
What has happened in the market during our absence? Not much. The U.S. dollar tended to be weak amid worries about North Korea and the upcoming French presidential elections. Moreover, U.S. CPI data disappointed last Friday, pushing back Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. The probability of a rate hike in June is around 50 percent now, down from 66.5 percent one week ago. With U.S. interest rate increases being already priced in and with mounting geopolitical risks, we could see further weakness in the greenback in the near term. Investors currently seek safe havens such as gold because of the unpredictability of Donald Trump's political and economic policies.
The risk-off mode in the markets may continue throughout this week with the French presidential elections looming. The first round of voting begins on April 23 and there is still high uncertainty which candidate will make it into the final face-to-face contest on May 7.
EUR/USD
The euro continues to trade sideways between 1.07 and 1.06 while it was recently accompanied by a slight upward tilt. A break above 1.0680 may encourage euro bulls to push the euro through the 1.07-barrier but traders should be cautious ahead of the French elections. We currently see a higher likelihood of a bullish breakout in short-term time frames but amidst a risk-averse market sentiment, it is very difficult to predict upcoming market moves. A break below 1.0580 however, could shift the bias in favor of the bears. 
GBP/USD
Bullish breakout: The British pound was on a roller-coaster ride and broke through the 1.26-barrier after it had fallen as low as 1.2515. A next resistance is now seen at 1.27. The pound rose after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she plans to hold early general elections on June 8.
Here are our daily signal alerts:
EUR/USD
Long at 1.0675 SL 25 TP 20, 40
Short at 1.0630 SL 25 TP 20, 40
GBP/USD
Long at 1.2610 SL 25 TP 20, 90
Short at 1.2525 SL 25 TP 20, 40
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Disclaimer: Any and all liability of the author is excluded.