GBP/JPY's rally extended to as high as 130.10 last week but continued to lose upside momentum with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. There is no clear sign of topping yet and thus, further rise is still expected this week for 61.8% retracement of 140.02 to 116.83 at 131.16. Though some strong resistance could be seen there to bring consolidations. Meanwhile, break of 126.68 support will indicate short term topping and bring some consolidations before staging another rally. Overall, the decline from 140.02 should have finished at 116.83 already. Break of 131.16 fibo level will target a test on 140.02 next.
In the bigger picture, the choppy decline from 163.05 is viewed as part of the down trend from 251.09. Current development is starting to suggest that such fall is finished. Focus is now turned to 140.02 key resistance. Sustained break there will firstly indicate completion of fall from 163.05. More importantly, this will also signal completion of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 251.09. In such case, stronger rise should be seen back to retest on 163.05.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. It's still a bit too early to say whether such down trend is finished yet and as long as 140.02 resistance holds, another fall would remain favor to 100 psychological level. Nonetheless, break of 140.02 will confirm bottoming and GBP/JPY Could then correct the whole down trend form 251.09.
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GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook: March 4, 2012
Published 03/04/2012, 03:01 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook: March 4, 2012
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