GBP/JPY jumped to as high as 133.48 last week for lost momentum and formed a short term top there. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for deeper pull back. But downside is expected to be contained by 126.54 support and bring rebound. Rise from 117.29 is expected to resume sooner or later and break of 133.48 should target a test on 140.02 key resistance level next.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that the choppy decline from 163.05 is completed at 116.83 already. Focus remains on 140.02 and a sustained break there will confirm this bullish case. More importantly, this will also signal completion of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 251.09. In such case, stronger rise should be seen back to retest on 163.05 resistance next. Though, failure below 140.02 resistance will indicate that GBP/JPY is merely in sideway trading pattern between 116.83 and 140.02.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade downtrend. It's still a bit too early to say whether such downtrend is finished yet and as long as 140.02 resistance holds, another fall would remain favor to 100 psychological level. Nonetheless, break of 140.02 will confirm bottoming and GBP/JPY could then correct the whole downtrend from 251.09.
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GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook: March 26, 2012
Published 03/25/2012, 11:55 PM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook: March 26, 2012
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