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GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook: March 18, 2012

ByActionForex
Published 03/18/2012, 05:55 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
GBP/JPY
0.50%

GBP/JPY rose to as high as 132.43 last week and took out mentioned target of 61.8% retracement of 140.02 to 116.83 at 131.16. There is no sign of topping yet and initial bias will remain on the upside this week. Current rise from 117.29 should eventually target a test on 140.02 key resistance level. On the downside, below 130.11 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 126.54 is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish for another rally.

In the bigger picture, recent development argues that choppy decline from 163.05 is completed at 116.83 already. Focus remains on 140.02 and sustained break there will confirm this bullish case. More importantly, this will also signal completion of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 251.09. In such case, stronger rise should be seen back to retest on 163.05 resistance next. Though, failure below 140.02 resistance will indicate that GBP/JPY is merely in sideway trading pattern between 116.83 and 140.02.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. It's still a bit too early to say whether such down trend is finished yet and as long as 140.02 resistance holds, another fall would remain favor to 100 psychological level. Nonetheless, break of 140.02 will confirm bottoming and GBP/JPY Could then correct the whole down trend form 251.09.
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