Crude: We’re hoping for better volumes in April than what we’ve seen in March. Regardless, it’s staring to look like we’re not going to get out of this current range for the near term. We see us stagnating here and vacillating between support below at 9905, 9818 and 9724. While pushing higher to carom off resistance at 10029, 10147 and 10254. The front spread is faring no better with a dedicated range here. We see little reason other than Index roll to push much past support at 62 and 58. To the upside, we’ll be look-ing to challenge resistance at 75 and 82. The flat price is going to ease with the stats, but we see a rebound to close.
Gasoline: We’re moving ahead to RBK4. We’re moving ahead before expiry in hopes of finding better volumes. Here we see resistance getting us to 29078, 29273 and 29456. The support numbers fall back on 28781, 28543 and 28322. The front spread also moves forward and we look to support 222, 193 and 175. The resistance hits 245, 283, 313. RBCL resistance at 2200, 2278. Support sits to 2168, 2140.
Trends are only for the affected
We haven’t seen much change as far as direction and most analysts are flip flopping more than John Kerry. We can only see a sideways move here on the 10min chart that seems to just keep expanding. We’re looking at a floor of 9830, but the ceiling can be tested at 10030. We’ll need plenty of follow through to pop. The 60min chart is building a slow uptrend here with support holding 9920. Pivot trades around 10000 and channel resistance knocks on 10110.
Techies, some Trekkies
200 Day MA 10038
100 Day MA 9739
13 Day MA 9964
8 Day MA 9943
14 Day RSI 49.41
Spread now; Roll later
Cushing gets real
Key support: +86, +75, +64
Key Rests: +102, +113, +121
Fundy you should mention
If one had to wonder where all the business has gone, the return to volume yesterday was a refresher. Of course we had to have a sorry excuse of a trading day in the equity market to help us along. Well that and plenty of oil spills to keep things interesting. We think that we may have shot the bird a little early and the volumes we ran around yesterday may just not be around for the EIA stats today. Of course this is another quiet one on the economic calendar. Unless we catch a surprise on the Durable Goods (1.0) at 8:30, it might be quiet all around.
Sorry, I am just physically attracted
We keep moving closer to seeing the Houston Ship Channel open, but so far all we are seeing is light cargo barges being able to move through. This probably means bigger ships and those that are carrying crude are still unable to get through. We think that this should keep pressure on refineries and we’ll con-tinue to see run cuts through this week. Speaking of, we think that it’s an important thing to keep an eye on the crude imports that are backing up here. Imports have been low, but we think these crude imports are going to keep backing up. When we talk about counting barrels, we have to again remind everyone that were counting on seeing the gasoline imports, wrong again.