This week the scorecard recommends buying NOK, NZD and EUR while selling AUD, USD and GBP.
Last week's sell-off in NOK seems overdone according to the model and thus the scorecard recommends buying NOK this week. Despite a solid performance last week, the scorecard recommends buying NZD again this week as all input factors, besides the FX score, have a constructive view on NZD. Finally, the long basket this week also includes EUR. The single currency currently sees support from the input factors of interest rates and option market positioning.
Last week's rallies in notably AUD but also USD seem overdone and the scorecard recommends selling both currencies this week. The technical outlook for GBP is very negative according to the model and following the recent decline in 1M GBP/USD 25 delta risk reversal, the input factor for option market positioning also favours being short GBP.
Last week's signals resulted in a 0.4% gain. Due to the large weight, the short JPY position accounted for most of last week's gain. The long CAD, NOK and GBP positions were on the other hand expensive.
Next scorecard signals will be sent out on 31 March.
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