This week, the scorecard recommends buying JPY, SEK and EUR while selling AUD, USD and NZD (see suggested weights in portfolio in table below).
Last week’s JPY sell-off seems overdone according to the model, and the scorecard recommends buying JPY again this week. This week's long basket also includes SEK and EUR as technical, risk premium and positioning input factors favour being long both currencies.
Despite considerable depreciation versus the USD last week, the scorecard is short both AUD and NZD again this week as all input factors with the exception of FX scores, according to the model, are currently weighing on AUD and NZD. It is the fifth consecutive week that the model is shorting both currencies. Over the past four weeks the short AUD and NZD positions have generated a total weighted return of 2.4%. The scorecard also recommends selling USD this week after last week’s strong performance.
Last week’s signals resulted in a 0.3% gain. In particular, the long JPY position was expensive while the short AUD and NZD positions performed well.
Next scorecard signals will be sent out on May 20.
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